The Trillion-Dollar Season:

For the first time, American holiday shopping is forecast to cross a trillion dollars. Somewhere inside that number is the bakery that makes your favorite pie, the jeweler who restrings your grandmother’s necklace, and the friend who finally turned her candle hobby into a business. This is a guide to the season they are counting on.

On October 15, the National Retail Federation released its 2026 forecast: holiday retail sales in November and December are expected to grow 4.2% to $1.013 trillion, up from $972 billion last year [1]. The figure covers core retail only. It excludes car dealers, gas stations and restaurants [2].

2025 (actual)

$972B

2026 (NRF forecast)

$1.013T

Source: National Retail Federation holiday forecast, released Oct. 15, 2026 [1][2]. Excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

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A Record, With Fine Print

A record headline does not mean every shopper feels flush. NRF itself notes that inflation contributes to the growth, and that only about half of the projected increase is expected to come from real consumer spending rather than higher prices [1]. Higher diesel costs and memory-chip prices are pushing up the cost of popular gifts like electronics.

Shoppers know it. In NRF’s October consumer survey, 56% said the state of the economy will affect their holiday spending, and 64% said they are likely to wait for Thanksgiving weekend sales to do most of their shopping [3]. Retailers expect to hire 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers, roughly in line with last year’s estimated 356,000 [1].

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The Weekend That Decides the Season

If nearly two-thirds of shoppers are waiting for Thanksgiving weekend, then a handful of days carry an outsized share of the season. Here is how they fall this year:

Date	Day	What it is
Thursday, Nov. 26	Thanksgiving	Many shoppers start browsing deals online
Friday, Nov. 27	Black Friday	The big-box and national-chain sales peak
Saturday, Nov. 28	Small Business Saturday	The day dedicated to independent shops and restaurants
Monday, Nov. 30	Cyber Monday	Online deals, dominated by large e-commerce sites
Tuesday, Dec. 1	Giving Tuesday	A global day of charitable giving

Small Business Saturday was started by American Express in 2010. For many independent owners, it is not just another sales day. In American Express’s 2025 Shop Small Impact Study, small business owners said they expect nearly 20% of their annual revenue to come from Small Business Saturday alone [4].

What a slow Saturday means for a small shop

A national chain can absorb a weak weekend across thousands of stores and a full year of promotions. A one-location boutique counting on a fifth of its year in a single day cannot. That is why where you spend this specific Saturday matters so much more than it would on an ordinary week.

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What Shoppers and Owners Are Saying

The good news is that intent to shop small remains high, especially among younger shoppers. The same 2025 study, conducted by Teneo among 1,004 consumers and 500 small business owners, found:

Consumers likely to Shop Small, in person or online

86%

Millennial and Gen Z consumers likely to Shop Small

89%

Owners who say community support keeps them thriving

95%

Owners who saw a sales spike when a creator posted about them

82%

Source: American Express Shop Small Impact Study, conducted by Teneo, Sept.–Oct. 2025 [4]. Survey data is self-reported.

Intent and behavior are not always the same thing. American Express estimated that consumers spent about $18 billion at independent retailers and restaurants on Small Business Saturday 2025, based on consumer-reported survey data rather than actual receipts [5]. Forbes characterized that as a decline from the prior year, with bargain-hunting winning out over loyalty to local shops amid high prices and low confidence [6].

In other words, people want to shop small. The challenge is making it as easy and as affordable as clicking “buy” on a big site.

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Why It Adds Up

Small businesses are not a niche. According to the U.S. Small Business Administration’s Office of Advocacy, there are 36.2 million small businesses in the United States, making up 99.9% of all businesses and employing 45.9% of U.S. employees [7]. When holiday spending shifts even a few percentage points toward them, it moves paychecks in nearly every neighborhood in the country.

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How to Shop Small This Season, Without Overspending

Do this	Why it works
Make a short list of local or independent gifts before Thanksgiving weekend	64% of shoppers plan to wait for that weekend [3]. Having a plan keeps Small Business Saturday from being an afterthought.
Visit a holiday makers market	Dozens of independent sellers in one place, often with free admission. It is the fastest way to shop small for a whole list.
Give a gift card to a local shop or restaurant	It moves money to a small business now, and brings a new customer through their door later.
Post about the shops you love	82% of owners in the Amex study saw sales spike when creators posted about them [4]. Your post counts, too.
Buy fewer, better things	With 56% of shoppers saying the economy affects their plans [3], one well-made gift often beats three that won’t last.

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A Note from Rooted

This is the season Rooted was built for. Every shop on Rooted is an independent small business, and our local events guide lists holiday makers markets and Small Business Saturday events across California and major U.S. cities through the end of December. If you are an owner, opening a shop on Rooted gives you a year-round storefront with no listing fees.

A trillion-dollar season is coming either way. The only question is how much of it reaches the people who make our neighborhoods worth living in.

This season, the most meaningful gift isn’t what you buy. It’s who you buy it from.

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Find holiday makers markets near you in Rooted’s local events guide, or shop independent brands on Rooted.

Sources